François-Xavier de Vaujany, Paris Dauphine University – PSL; Amélie Bohas, Aix-Marseille University (AMU); Aurélie Leclercq-Vandelannoitte, IÉSEG School of Management; Julie Fabbri, EM Lyon Business School and Sabine Carton, Grenoble IAE Graduate School of Management
Work is changing, and with it, society as a whole. Debates about its future have been particularly heated over the past three years, reignited by discussions about digital technology, self-employment, and people with multiple jobs (slashers), universal basic income, and questions about new forms of management, solidarity, and governance.
Focusing at times on employment, work, or management practices, these debates served one purpose: to highlight the wide range of possible futures for work.
Atmosphere… Did you say atmosphere?!
In its latest research paper titled “The Future of Work in 2030: Four Atmospheres?”, the international network and think tank RGCS, in turn, offers a multifaceted vision of the futures of work.
We begin by presenting eight paradoxes at play in current work and management practices. They highlight the tensions and dilemmas at the heart of the transformations in the world of work: mobility vs. sedentary lifestyles; entrepreneurship vs. dependence; freedom vs. security; autonomy vs. control; digitalization vs. physicality, etc.
On this basis, we are reclaiming the conceptof “atmosphere”—at once simple and paradoxical—to describe the work of today and tomorrow. “Atmosphere” refers to the setting, the context, the mood—everything that is difficult to put into words in a living or working environment. At the same time, it is very concrete in its constituent elements: gestures, tools, places, practices, sensations, emotions, and so on. It is a “quasi-materiality” (res)felt in the lighting, words, sounds, and textures that shape our relationship to work. Atmosphere defines—both in and beyond words—the space and time of work activity.
We then develop four scenarios, each tied to a specific work environment, to explore what the world of work will look like by 2030.
- “Freelancing” envisions a society composed primarily of self-employed workers and freelancers connected through global platforms. The Other is a transaction. The atmosphere becomes “liquid” in the sense described by Z. Bauman;
- “Wage Labor” describes a world in which wage labor is the central mode of operation. While permanent and fixed-term contracts are undergoing legal changes, they remain at the heart of employment and work. The Other is the contract. The atmosphere becomes entrenched and takes root;
- “Hybridization” represents an even greater break with current ways of operating. Forms of multiple employment are widespread in this context. Everyone holds several jobs at the same time or alternates between periods of salaried work and entrepreneurship at a rapid pace. The atmosphere becomes a layered tapestry of sensations—either alternating or experienced simultaneously. The “Other,” which is reversible, is another version of oneself and requires managing a “multiple self.” For some, this atmosphere is almost schizophrenic;
- “Universal income” envisions a situation in which the meaning we ascribe to our activities takes precedence over performance and social status. Forms of wage labor and entrepreneurship persist against a backdrop of widespread solidarity. The atmosphere is characterized more by giving and self-reinvention.
Of course, these scenarios—and the atmospheres associated with them—can be combined. For example, we can imagine freelancing and salaried work developing in tandem as fixed-term contracts become more widespread. The freelancing and universal basic income scenarios also seem compatible to us. Our four scenarios represent practical and emotional possibilities that we suggest exploring in order to envision the future.
To state our own conviction here, we believe that the future of work will be full of surprises and will creatively intertwine the developments we have just outlined. The major paradoxes and managerial challenges highlighted in this third research note on the subject will, however, remain of critical importance in determining whether or not French society will achieve a balance within the next ten years or so.
Futures or no future?!
One summer evening in 2025 in Montpellier, Freelancia, Salaria, Hybridia, and Solidaria are chatting at Place de la Comédie.
These four female characters embody our four scenarios. Each of them represents the future of work. Any resemblance to real people—living or deceased—or to actual events is not purely coincidental!
This dialogue (detailed in our research note) between these four individuals illustrates the specific—and sometimes mutually exclusive—life choices and social visions that correspond to each of these scenarios. Excerpt:
Hybridia: “Three years ago, I was still a freelancer. And do you remember that after high school, I started a small collaborative art business? But I think you’re drawing too sharp a contrast between things, Freelancia! Why not have the best of both worlds: moments of freedom and moments of security?”
Freelancia: “There are only 24 hours in a day […]. If I had another job on the side, I’d feel like I was cheating on my first job.”
[…]
Solidaria: “You’re not going to spend your whole life selling hot air! You’ve been a ‘consultant,’ an ‘innovation catalyst,’ and now a ‘chief of intrapreneurship.’ What’s next? […] Don’t you want to do things that would be more meaningful? For yourself and for others?”
Salaria: “I couldn’t get by on love and fresh water like you do. I’m raising two kids almost entirely on my own. I know how much their education is going to cost. I want them to have a top-notch education […] that will give them that little nest egg you relied on too when you were starting out.”
The paper goes on to offer a more specific reflection on the technological aspects underlying these scenarios. It discusses the connections between artificial intelligence (AI) and work (rather than employment). Drawing on a metaphor related to ancient Egypt borrowed from Michel Serres, we propose viewing the future worker’s smartphone and its AI as a “ Ka ”—an autonomous double of each of us. We then raise a number of ethical questions.
In conclusion, far from giving in to the temptation of crystal ball predictions or dystopian visions, we hope, through this research, to highlight lifestyle choices, technological practices, forms of work—both old and new—as well as voting patterns and civic engagement that, even today, make certain scenarios regarding the future of work possible or impossible.
This article is excerpted from the study titled “The Future of Work in 2030: Four Atmospheres?”, co-authored by François-Xavier de Vaujany (PSL, Paris-Dauphine University), Amélie Bohas (Aix-Marseille University), Sabine Carton (Grenoble-Alpes University), Julie Fabbri (EM Lyon Business School), and Aurélie Leclercq-Vandelannoitte (CNRS, IESEG). This study was conducted as part of the RGCS (Research Group on Collaborative Spaces) international research network on new work practices.
François-Xavier de Vaujany, Professor of Management and Organizational Theory, Paris Dauphine University – PSL; Amélie Bohas, Associate Professor of Management Sciences, Aix-Marseille University (AMU); Aurélie Leclercq-Vandelannoitte, Researcher, CNRS, LEM (Lille Economie Management), IÉSEG School of Management; Julie Fabbri, Professor of Strategy and Innovation Management, EM Lyon Business School and Sabine Carton, Professor of Information Systems Management at Grenoble IAE - CERAG, Grenoble IAE Graduate School of Management
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.